One storm is not a drought-breaker.
The wind-driven rain and snow that pushed into the San Juan Mountains late Thursday to bring welcome relief to a January that ranks as one of the driest doesn’t alter the long-term outlook for Southwest Colorado, experts say.
January in Durango also was warmer than the historical average. National Weather Service records show that the average high temperature in Durango in January from 1894 to 2010 was 39 degrees. In the month just gone by, all but three days saw a maximum of at least 40 degrees, with nine days at 50 or more.
Subpar precipitation that dates to a year ago and the lack of any substantial moisture in the month that ended Friday have ranchers wringing their hands.
“I can’t remember any time that has been as dry,” said Pat Greer, a fourth-generation rancher who has hay and cattle on land homesteaded by his family in Marvel in 1907. “We got fair moisture back in September, but the wind came along and pulled it all out of the ground.
“There is absolutely no ground moisture,” said Greer, who was born and reared on the land he now works. “It’s been depleted by four years of little precipitation.”
Doug Ramsey, who has ranched for nearly 40 years south of Hesperus, said last week that he’s hurting, too.
Ramsey grows hay and has sheep, but his dry pastures have provided little forage for the lambs he fears will have to be sold underweight.
The essential element for the second annual Winter Festival at Mesa Verde National Park – snow – was missing, so the event – two Saturdays of outdoor activities – has been canceled.
The rain and snow that fell Thursday and Friday and the precipitation from a weaker front expected to arrive Monday and later this week, have been a pleasant change from the clear, sunny skies during most of January.
A high-pressure ridge that has sat off the Pacific Coast for a year is partially responsible for dry conditions in Southwest Colorado, said Jim Daniels, a forecaster at the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
The high-pressure ridge blocks storms or shunts them to the north.
“It weakens sometimes or shifts a little, so we see storms such as this one,” Daniels said Thursday. “We should see some storms over the next week to 10 days.”
The high-pressure ridge also is denying California the storms that should leave the Sierra Nevada buried in snow.
The Los Angeles Times reported Friday that the snowpack in the Sierras on Thursday was 12 percent of average, the lowest it’s been for the date in more than 50 years.
Long-term forecast looks dry
In spite of break-through storms, the long view of agencies that monitor weather and climate is that continued or increasing dryness will dog the southwest corner of Colorado for several months.
The Natural Resources Conservation Service report on snowpack and reservoir storage for December found the snowpack in the Animas, San Juan, Dolores and San Miguel drainage at 76 percent of normal.
A report on snow levels for January will be available in a few days.
A National Integrated Drought Information System map showed that from Jan. 1 to 26, La Plata County received 1/100th to 1/10th of an inch of precipitation. January’s historical average is 1.12 inches of moisture, as measured at Durango-La Plata County Airport. Durango typically receives more.
A map from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center shows southern La Plata County as an area where drought development is likely.
The Wednesday-Thursday storm dropped 8 inches of snow at Purgatory at Durango Mountain Resort, which had received only 9 inches through Jan. 29.
In contrast, a story in The Durango Herald almost a year ago about historic snowfall at Purgatory revealed that the 38-year average snowfall in January was 49 inches.
In Hesperus, where Pam Snyder has been measuring snow since 1999, January accumulations have declined since 2005, with the exception of two years.
The last four years, particularly, have seen scant snow in January. In 2011, Snyder recorded one-half inch; the next two years saw 7.2 and 7.25 inches, respectively. This year, she found ¼ inch in her gauge.
“It all came the last day of the month,” Snyder said.
daler@durangoherald.com
