With a weather window possibly opening up, this year’s race may be more against the weather than the train, a National Weather Service meteorologist said Friday.
Indications are a downturn in moisture for the San Juan Mountains on Saturday morning, with light, isolated showers more likely than major storms, said Joe Ramey, with the service’s Grand Junction office.
“There might be a window where the bike race could squeeze through with perhaps only light showers along the race course,” he said.
A decision on the weather, and how it might affect the 43rd running of the Iron Horse Bicycle Classic, will be made at 6 a.m. Saturday, said Jeff Frost, Iron Horse director. A decision will be made in conjunction with officials from the Iron Horse committee, the town of Silverton, Durango Mountain Resort and the Colorado State Patrol, Frost said. The State Patrol will do a reconnaissance of Coal Bank and Molas passes early in the morning to evaluate road conditions.
“The passes potentially could be a challenge,” Frost said.
If so, there are several different options that could be considered for the race and ride, he said.
Frost said Friday that the weather forecast keeps changing, and he was encouraging out-of-town visitors to make the trip to Durango and see what happens.
Ramey said that dry air is working its way up from northern New Mexico on the east side of a low-pressure system, and the best moisture from the storm appears to be aimed at Utah and northwest Colorado.
U.S. Highway 550 over Coal Bank and Molas passes likely will be wet Saturday morning, but likely not snow-covered.
“Right now I just don’t see that’s a very high possibility,” Ramey said at noon Friday.
But in the afternoon, as surface heat affects weather and increases instability, things could change.
“By noon all bets are off tomorrow,” Ramey said. “Thunderstorms will start to fire that could produce graupel or sleet across the passes, and lightning strikes and all kinds of issues.”
He said the best chance for weekend precipitation in the San Juan Mountains will occur Saturday night into Sunday. Six to 10 inches of snow are possible.
“We’re not super confident we’ll get that kind of accumulation, but I think some kind of accumulation over the passes is a pretty strong likelihood.”
Chance of rain in Durango is highest Saturday, and continues on a decreasing trend through Monday. Next week is looking much different, Ramey said.
“The warm-up next week is going to be dramatic.”
johnp@durangoherald.com
